Nielsen VideoScan/Home Media Magazine: Blu-ray/DVD/HD DVD Stats (Updated Weekly)

[admin]

Stats:

For the week ending 25th June 2011, here are the stats:

Percentage of revenue:
Blu-ray vs DVD: 20.34% vs 79.66%

Blu-ray sales total spending: $25.07 million
DVD sales total spending: $98.18 million

These stats available from here:

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/

Top 10:

Blu-ray revenue and market are are down from last week's highs, but market share still remained above 20% thanks to a couple of new releases.

The Adjustment Bureau was the week's best selling Blu-ray title, but it only had a small lead over the number two, and also newly released, Unknown.

Last week's number one, and the title responsible for the short term record that was set last week, Battle: Los Angeles, dropped to third place, just ahead of another new release, Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules. While 'Rodrick Rules' only sold half as many copies on Blu-ray as The Adjustment Bureau, it was a much closer affair on the combined Blu-ray + DVD sales list, where 'Rodrick Rules' even managed to outsell Battle: LA.

There was room for another new release in the Blu-ray top 10 though, with The Eagle at 6th.

Cedar Rapids made the top 20 combined list, but didn't make the top 10 Blu-ray list (coming in at 13th instead).

So with a healthy dose of new releases, but no A-list releases (The Adjustment Bureau is close though), Blu-ray sales didn't go above last week's highs.

Here's the complete top 10 chart is below (new releases in bold, and Blu-ray exclusives are denoted by *):

1. The Adjustment Bureau
2. Unknown
3. Battle: Los Angeles
4. Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules
5. True Grit
6. The Eagle
7. Cars
8. Hall Pass
9. Red Riding Hood
10. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1

Market Share:

The Adjustment Bureau did not match Battle: LA's record last week of selling well above 50% of its copies on the Blu-ray format, with a lower, but still respectable, 43.40% first week Blu-ray market share.

None of the other new releases did any better, with Unknown at 41.02%, The Eagle at 39.96%, and Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules only managing 24%.

Despite not making the Blu-ray top 10 sales charts, Cedar Rapids did make the Blu-ray top 20 market share charts, at 15th with 34.68% BD market share.

Tron: Legacy led this week's charts, with 67.86%, with the first two Transformers movies also ranking above 50% at 2nd and 3rd.

You can see the Blu-ray top 20 market share chart here:

http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hom4087259JYN/index.php?startid=16

Year on Year Comparison

The stats for the week ending 26th June 2010 are as follows (you can see stats and analysis for the week ending 27th June 2010 here - note that data has since been revised, and the reporting period has changed as well, but this historical data is still useful for comparison purposes).

Blu-ray vs DVD: 15.64% vs 84.36%

Blu-ray: $20.87 million
DVD: $112.59 million

Blu-ray sales increased by $4.2m (up 20.1%), while DVD sales decreased by $14.41m (down 12.8%) producing an overall loss of $10.21 million in combined revenue.

Blu-ray's market share increased from 15.64% to 20.34% (a growth of 30.05%).

[admin]

Stats:

For the week ending 2nd July 2011, here are the stats:

Percentage of revenue:
Blu-ray vs DVD: 24.22% vs 75.78%

Blu-ray sales total spending: $30.79 million
DVD sales total spending: $96.32 million

These stats available from here:

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/

Top 10:

Blu-ray revenue rose, while DVD revenue dropped compared to last week, and this meant that Blu-ray market share rose to a multi-week high, thanks largely to one Blu-ray exclusive release, and a new movie.

The new movie was Sucker Punch, but while it was the best selling movie on all discs, it was only second best on Blu-ray.

The best selling Blu-ray was the Blu-ray exclusive Lord of the Rings: Extended Edition.

The action movie Season of the Witch managed to grab third spot, but was way behind the front two. Battle: LA slipped to fourth.

And despite only coming 12th on the all discs charts, The Warrior's Way came 8th on the Blu-ray top 10 chart, just ahead of Beastly, which sold more copies on DVD.

But the better than average performance of Sucker Punch on Blu-ray, and the first time on Blu-ray Lord of the Rings trilogy, helped Blu-ray market share figures reach a 11 week high.

The complete top 10 chart is below (new releases in bold, and Blu-ray exclusives are denoted by *):

1. *Lord of the Rings: Extended Edition
2. Sucker Punch
3. Season of the Witch
4. Battle: Los Angeles
5. Unknown
6. The Adjustment Bureau
7. True Grit
8. The Warrior's Way
9. Beastly
10. Robin Hood

Market Share:

Sucker Punch easily broke Battle: Los Angeles' first week release Blu-ray market share figures, by getting a huge 61.42% market share percentage. This means that nearly 2 out of every 3 copies of Sucker Punch that was purchased on a disc, was sold on Blu-ray. Ironically, Sucker Punch was the only Blu-ray title to sell over 50% this week, despite this being a much more regular occurrence lately.

And with the top selling Blu-ray title being a Blu-ray exclusive, this helped Blu-ray's overall market share rise to a 11 week high. The great sales performance of the Extended edition of LotR should remind Warner what they should have done in the first place, instead of releasing the very average Theatrical edition last year, which performed poorly and met with heavy criticism from fans.

For the other new releases, The Warrior's Way managed 39.84%, above Season of the Witch's 33.51%, and Beastly's comparatively poor 19.54%.

You can see the Blu-ray top 20 market share chart here:

http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hom57135811NBY/index.php?startid=16

Year on Year Comparison

The stats for the week ending 3rd July 2010 are as follows (you can see stats and analysis for the week ending 4th July 2010 here - note that data has since been revised, and the reporting period has changed as well, but this historical data is still useful for comparison purposes).

Blu-ray vs DVD: 15.23% vs 84.77%

Blu-ray: $22.08 million
DVD: $122.86 million

Blu-ray sales increased by $8.71m (up 39.4%), while DVD sales decreased by $26.54m (down 21.6%) producing an overall loss of $17.83 million in combined revenue.

Blu-ray's market share increased from 15.23% to 24.22% (a growth of 59.03%).

[admin]

Stats:

For the week ending 9th July 2011, here are the stats:

Percentage of revenue:
Blu-ray vs DVD: 19.34% vs 80.66%

Blu-ray sales total spending: $20.37 million
DVD sales total spending: $84.94 million

These stats available from here:

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/

Top 10:

With practically no new releases this week, Blu-ray market share and revenue both dropped, but market share still hovered around the 20% mark.

The top 2 Blu-ray titles remained the same in the top 10 sales chart, LotR: Extended Trilogy and Sucker Punch. Number 3, and selling only half as many copies as Sucker Punch, was the week's only notable new release, 13 Assassins.

And despite coming only 17th on the "all discs" (Blu-ray + DVD) sales charts, Hobo with a Shotgun shot up all the way to 7th on the Blu-ray charts thanks to better than expected Blu-ray market share figures.

The only other new release in the top 20 "all discs" chart was the season 4 of Eureka, which wasn't even available on Blu-ray.

The complete top 10 chart is below (new releases in bold, and Blu-ray exclusives are denoted by *):

1. *The Lord of the Rings: Extended Edition
2. Sucker Punch
3. 13 Assassins
4. Battle: Los Angeles
5. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1
6. Tangled
7. Hobo with a Shotgun
8. Gnomeo & Juliet
9. Season of the Witch
10. Tron Legacy

Market Share:

In its second week of release, Sucker Punch on Blu-ray still managed to sell nearly on parity with the DVD edition, with 49.84% market share, and with the Blu-ray exclusive LotR Extended Trilogy still the best seller, this helped Blu-ray market share stay up despite the lack of new releases.

Of the new releases, all two of them, both actually managed to sell more copies on Blu-ray than DVD, with 13 Assassins at 53.75%, and Hobo with a Shotgun at the higher 58.79%. An interesting trend is developing here ...

You can see the Blu-ray top 20 market share chart here:

Home Media Magazine - July 18-24, 2011 - (24)

Year on Year Comparison

The stats for the week ending 10th July 2010 are as follows (you can see stats and analysis for the week ending 11th July 2010 here - note that data has since been revised, and the reporting period has changed as well, but this historical data is still useful for comparison purposes).

Blu-ray vs DVD: 13.1% vs 86.9%

Blu-ray: $16.57 million
DVD: $109.88 million

Blu-ray sales increased by $3.8m (up 22.9%), while DVD sales decreased by $24.94m (down 22.7%) producing an overall loss of $21.14 million in combined revenue.

Blu-ray's market share increased from 13.1% to 19.34% (a growth of 47.63%).

[admin]

Stats:

For the week ending 16th July 2011, here are the stats:

Percentage of revenue:
Blu-ray vs DVD: 19.65% vs 80.35%

Blu-ray sales total spending: $23.21 million
DVD sales total spending: $94.88 million

These stats available from here:

Home Media Magazine



Top 10:

A couple of popular new releases, and both Blu-ray and DVD revenue rose compared to the previous week, with market share remain largely unchanged.

The week's top release was Rango, which sold almost twice as many copies as the second most popular title, also a new release, The Lincoln Lawyer.

But that's now all, even the third most popular title was also a new release, Insidious.

Two more new releases were in the top 10: The remake of Arthur in 7th, and Entourage: Season 7 in 9th.

Another new release, Robot Chicken: Star Wars Episode III made both the Blu-ray top 20 and the all-discs (Blu-ray + DVD) top 20, but didn't manage to get into the top 10 for either chart.

The complete top 10 chart is below (new releases in bold, and Blu-ray exclusives are denoted by *):

1. Rango
2. The Lincoln Lawyer
3. Insidious
4. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1
5. *The Lord of the Rings: Extended Edition
6. Sucker Punch
7. Arthur
8. Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
9. Entourage: Season 7
10. Battle: Los Angeles

Market Share:

With new releases aplenty, somehow, Blu-ray market share still failed to rise to the record levels seen recently, that's largely due to none of the new releases breaching the 50% market share barrier, meaning for all the new releases this week, the DVD editions all outsold the Blu-ray editions (sometimes just barely though).

Even then, Rango's 45.73% Blu-ray market share is nothing to be sneezed at. The Lincoln Lawyer and Insidious' market share figures were neck to neck, 36.57% and 37.21% respectively. Arthur wasn't far behind either, with 35.59%

The other new releases did less well. Entourage: Season 7 managed 23%, while Robot Chicken Star Wars III got 30%.

You can see the Blu-ray top 20 market share chart here:

Home Media Magazine - July 25-31, 2011 - (21)

Year on Year Comparison

The stats for the week ending 17th July 2010 are as follows (you can see stats and analysis for the week ending 18th July 2010 here - note that data has since been revised, and the reporting period has changed as well, but this historical data is still useful for comparison purposes).

Blu-ray vs DVD: 11.57% vs 88.43%

Blu-ray: $14.35 million
DVD: $109.69 million

Blu-ray sales increased by $8.86m (up 61.7%), while DVD sales decreased by $14.81m (down 13.5%) producing an overall loss of $5.95 million in combined revenue.

Blu-ray's market share increased from 11.57% to 19.65% (a growth of 69.84%).

[admin]

Stats:

For the week ending 23rd July 2011, here are the stats:

Percentage of revenue:
Blu-ray vs DVD: 19.29% vs 80.71%

Blu-ray sales total spending: $23.25 million
DVD sales total spending: $97.25 million

These stats available from here:

Home Media Magazine



Top 10:

Blu-ray sales and market share remains steady as this week's limited new releases failed to lift the format above recent highs.

The best performing new release was Limitless, but it failed to outsell last week's number one, Rango, either on the Blu-ray only charts, or in the combined disc (Blu-ray and DVD) charts.

Take Me Home Tonight, at 5th, was the only other new release to make the top 20 Blu-ray charts (the Blu-ray version of 'NHL 2011 Stanley Cup Champions: Boston Bruins' did not make the top 20, although on the combined charts, it reached as high as 17th).

So a slow week where recent new releases still dominated.

The complete top 10 chart is below (new releases in bold, and Blu-ray exclusives are denoted by *):

1. Rango
2. Limitless
3. The Lincoln Lawyer
4. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1
5. Take Me Home Tonight
6. Insidious
7. Arthur
8. Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
9. Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules
10. Scott Pilgrim vs. the World

Market Share:

As mentioned earlier, market share remained largely unchanged thanks to lack of new releases, and largely the same titles as last week being in the top 10 charts.

For the new releases, Limitless managed 40.38%, a good market share figure for a first week release, while Take Me Home Tonight was only slightly worse at 37.59%.

While it did not make the top 20 sales Blu-ray chart, the Blu-ray of 'NHL 2011 Stanley Cup Champions: Boston Bruins' managed to get a respectable 26% market share.

You can see the Blu-ray top 20 market share chart here:

Home Media Magazine - August 1-7, 2011 - (16)

Year on Year Comparison

The stats for the week ending 24th July 2010 are as follows (you can see stats and analysis for the week ending 25th July 2010 here - note that data has since been revised, and the reporting period has changed as well, but this historical data is still useful for comparison purposes).

Blu-ray vs DVD: 12.63% vs 87.37%

Blu-ray: $15.51 million
DVD: $107.33 million

Blu-ray sales increased by $7.74m (up 49.9%), while DVD sales decreased by $10.08m (down 9.4%) producing an overall loss of just $2.34 million in combined revenue.

The $2.34 million combined loss is the 'best' figure for quite a while, suggesting that Blu-ray's gains is finally filling the gap left by DVD's loss, largely thanks to DVD losses being less severe this week compared to the same time last year. Overall revenue was down more compared to two year's ago, in 2009, but DVD's losses have also translated to gains for digital distribution, figures for which aren't examine in this analysis feature.

Blu-ray's market share increased from 12.63% to 19.29% (a growth of 57.73%).

[dr_ml422]

So basically prolly releasing new titles and/or classics etc... might just be better in the combo version since it seems that buyers want the DVD version along w/the Blu-ray. If it's not much more than either the solo Blu-ray or DVD than it's a no brainer. It does count as a Blu-ray sale though as you mentioned earlier correct?

Ttytt I'm glad they're starting to release sports footage as this NHL. It's hard to find complete footage of a championship or even semi-final games to watch and discuss. Usually they just put out the clips they deem best.

Lincoln Lawyer was released kind of quickly or has it been out that long?

I wonder what the strategy will eventually be in trying to make Blu-ray the main format. The combo counts towards it, though DVD is still there. Lots of my friends are already going Blu-ray though because of the price and quality.

[admin]

I think it costs studios something like 25 cents to actually include the DVD version in a combo (if that), but they can charge usually $3 to $5 more, and so it makes sense for them to do it. Consumers are also wiling to pay a few dollars more to get an extra copy (maybe for the kids, if it's a kids movie). And yes, all combos count as a Blu-ray sale, not DVD.

I think it will be difficult for Blu-ray to completely take over and replace DVDs, since for some titles, it's just not economical (or possible) to produce an HD version, so DVDs are still very much needed.

[dr_ml422]

I know they're making a killing and crying poor all the time.

What kind or which movies wouldn't be conducive to the Blu-ray format? Are you leaning towards older classics that need to be fully converted and some other reason making them not worth the conversion?

I can't see any action/Disney/horror etc... flic nowadays that can't greatly benefit from being on Blu-ray.

[admin]

The classics, because they're on film, can actually benefit a lot from a proper HD transfer, since film's resolution is technically unlimited (it's analogue, not digital).

But low budget, cheap films and TV shows shot with low resolution tape, or if the film has degraded to the point where a restoration is cost prohibitive, as well as the Blu-ray licensing fees, then these won't see much improvement moving to HD. Although I suppose you could store SD on Blu-ray and be able to store as much as 20 hours on a BD50.

[AT.]

I wonder what the strategy will eventually be in trying to make Blu-ray the main format. The combo counts towards it, though DVD is still there.

I think, this is the wrong way to see, what's happening.

I think, the truth is, that we can see now the total demolition of the optical film market. It was TOO LATE to add the combos to the BD disc (which is the perfect proof that the BD format's idea was an Epic Fail), as it's absolutely clear, that if somebody can purchase two disc for one price, than this person will purchase two discs for one money.

This is the total defeat for BD.

As I was written years ago, this was the epic fail of the BD idea, to be the "only one" against to the DVD without ANY REAL and CLEAR advantage. The HD DVD was the answer for the HD standard, because it was designed for the first time to be a COMBO disc (two sided), as in this case You could be able to play the SAME disc in a HD DVD player, but ALSO in a single DVD player.

As I was pointed it out, there are several more DVD players out there in the small equipments, which will never be BD players. Also, there are several computers, and other players out there, which are not able to play a BD, and they never will be able - but they can play a DVD without any problem. Let me see, a DVD player in a car, in a notebook, in a PC, in a mobile DVD player, in a caravan, the small playerS in the kids roomS, or in the kitchen maybe. No one, but no one will replace any display for a BD player under 20" diameter, as on a smaller screen (ie Notebook, office monitors) no one ever be able to see the REAL difference. Of course, those, who will count the pixels, while they will pause the disc will be able to - but this is a real minority.

So, if you check the past with the huge cheating first for the HD DVD-BD sales during the format wars, after this the huge cheating with the BD vs. DVD figures, and now, the cheating with the combo disc added to the BD fairytales sales - we can clearly see, if we want to see, that the BD sales are STRUGGLING and stagnates, and with these parameters we can also see, that the BD/DVD percentage can seem better only because the total sales of the optical discs are collapse accelerating week by week.

Another former point: Note, the US sales are ALWAYS includes the internatinal sales, but the DVD sales are not. This means, that the percentage of the DVD sales are still far superior, than the BD fans intend to see.

Let me see, if this way continues, all BD disc will be sold as COMBO, which can be "interpreted" like the BD won the game, but IMHO, this means one of the world's most biggest lost ever, because in this case You have to sell the opponent format to sell the preferred one. And this means, the publishers can make less money(!), against to the case, if they must support only the DVD format! This is madness!

So, and IMHO, now we can conclude, that the BD idea was defeated, and it will be placed soon on a shelf in the Sony HQ, next by the Betamax and the Minidisc and SACD for example.

So there will be only one optical disc format on the market. That's correct and sure. Because there will be a last one, which will be sold in the next few years. I THINK, the total sales ammount is getting very close to the the minimum figures to keep this formatS on the market week by week.

Of course - IMHO.

[admin]

It is kind of cheating, counting combos as Blu-ray, especially now that you have the "devious" attempt to disguise the combo package as a DVD (Disney has "DVD packaging", so it looks like a DVD, it's probably placed in the DVD section, but it contains the Blu-ray and is counted as a Blu-ray sale).

But you sort of need this kind of "cheating" to promote Blu-ray, and HD DVD combos tried to do the same. At some point, and this may come as soon as next year, studios might stop producing DVD-only editions of certain releases altogether, and sell only combos (I'll put money on Disney being the one to try it, with some of their classic releases). This is the next logical step in the "cheating", or rather, the "forcing" of Blu-ray adoption unto people. But with prices dropping, a lot of people don't need to be "forced" to adopt the format, not if they see value.

But that's the problem with Blu-ray. It's purpose is to increase revenue, but if the only way for people to adopt it is for it to become the new "budget" format, then I do agree that Blu-ray has failed for the industry. It's still a win for Panasonic and Sony though, the two major patent holders behind the format, because even though Blu-ray may not be a more profitable format than DVD, DVD was only a really profitable format (in terms of royalty payments) for Toshiba, not for Panasonic and Sony.

Not sure about your point regarding international sales, the figures I have are for US sales for Blu-ray and DVD, and I'm fairly certain it does not include International sales. Although because a lot of Blu-ray discs are region-free (a lot more than DVDs, anyway), there are a lot more International buyers than for the region locked DVDs. But on the other hand, there are more region-free DVD players than region-free Blu-ray players, and I'm not sure if overseas buying is in such great quantity that it actually affects the sales stats so much.

I also agree that Blu-ray will probably be the last optical disc format. There's not much point in increasing movie resolution beyond 1080p (unless we all have 80" TVs), and so, there's not much need for a disc with more than 50GB capacity for a single movie (maybe for TV seasons). And if you think about it, other than the HDD (which will be replaced by SSD at some point), there's no other component inside a computer today that's actually mechanical in nature, other than the cooling fans.

[JaneSmith]

Wow, thank you so much. It's very nice of you. I love digital magzines.

[dr_ml422]

The point about not replacing any 20" player w/a blu-ray player is basically common sense, at least for those of us familiar with all this. That's not to say they won't stop producing 20" and under players at some point as anything can happen, and w/cell phones and iPads etc... putting out Hi-Def something's gotta give. I've seen PS3's put into Vans so that's either here nor there, except whether the format being watched is DVD explicitly. It might be the last format, though then Sony etc... has decisions to make about accomodating DVDs in any future consoles/players. The cloud concept w/that Ultra-Violet etc... is shaky at best as a non direct signal is shaky under certain circumstances.

Now who really knows what the actual costs of putting out a Blu-ray is and what they're really making. Does anyone actually believe that it costs 10x as much or so to put out a Blu-ray? If they were going for about $40.00 or so in the beginning and now can be had for as little as even 5 or $6.99 then something was up from the get go. The need for a Blu-ray viewing will more likely determine it's fate along w/the price drop we've seen. I don't know how much the Gamers feel about a Blu-ray Game and what they've been spending so that's another thing to keep in mind. Is 1080P flat out considered Blu-ray? If so then even a downloaded Game or flic can be counted as Blu-ray material. While streaming is getting more common place not everyone has or can afford a high bandwidth connection w/the appropriate speeds to even enjoy a Hi-Def/Blu-ray download anyway. So the ISPs will also have a lot to say about the future of any format. It's not as simple as putting numbers together as we think, though it seems that way. In all fairness floabw, Blu-ray might just be the top of the line luxury format for those who like/want/buy it. Like renting a Escalade or some Ferrari once in a while even though any vehicle will take you there.

Everything would have to come down drastically for Blu-ray to be a common household item. Also the flash in the pan which I deem as 3D also will require price adjustments as there really no sense whatsoever to even attempt a 3D on anything small period.

The convenience of handling a decent size cell phone is what's keeping that alive as placing a call on some tablet etc... is basically uncomfortable if that.

I'm not upgrading to any other console after reading this tonite. Too many ifs, ands or buts surrounding the whole Format extravaganza.

Btw Rise Of The Planet Of the Apes was well done and I will get it on Blu-ray!

[AT.]

But you sort of need this kind of "cheating" to promote Blu-ray, and HD DVD combos tried to do the same.

I think, it's not even the same, but not even looks the same. HD DVD's idea was to fill the time gap between the lifetime of the old players and the spread of the new HD players WITH THE SAME DISC. I think, this idea was very good. But the idea to sell the DVD's with a bonus(!) BluRay disc JUST to increase the "BD selling figures" seems the total facepalm to me. For example, You can play these combo disc in two players in the same time... congratulations.

"At some point, and this may come as soon as next year, studios might stop producing DVD-only editions of certain releases altogether, and sell only combos"

To spend far more money on a product WHICH PRESERVES THE DVD Players for the future? This will be the total admission of the total defeat of the BluRay, as this way the BluRay will be the "secondary" and "additional bonus" as long as the studios will add this to the DVD version...

"DVD was only a really profitable format (in terms of royalty payments) for Toshiba, not for Panasonic and Sony."

Yes, but DVD was also a Sony patent, so it means they will earn less money this way... and please do not forget, Sony was a part of the original HD format, not Toshiba denied them, but they were broke the fellowship for the HD DVD to get all the money and not to share it. Now they ruined the entire optical market, and they were surely lost an incredible huge ammount of money against to earn a massive profit.

Not sure about your point regarding international sales

Several BluRay disc are for US only, or for US sales only. For this reason several BluRay discs are being sold for the rest of the world for example via Ebay, or other on line shops. This way the figures will take part in the US selling, but it's not the part of the real US only selling. For example in Middle Europe, the majority orders the discs from the US, as it's far cheaper this way, than to buy them here. And it's even true, if we add ALL the additional costs, ie. customs, shipping, and so on.

And if you think about it, other than the HDD (which will be replaced by SSD at some point), there's no other component inside a computer today that's actually mechanical in nature, other than the cooling fans.

I agree

[admin]

Sony may have held some patents on DVDs, but I think Toshiba definitely had the most and received the most royalties. With Blu-ray, Panasonic now holds the most patents, while Sony holds more patents in relation to disc design - if Blu-ray replaces DVD, both companies will receive more from Blu-ray than they had from DVDs, which is why Toshiba desperately tried to promote HD DVD, so they can hold on to the royalties (not surprisingly, Toshiba now holds no patents for Blu-ray).

So Sony, Panasonic and the other Blu-ray patent holders don't actually need Blu-ray to be more profitable than DVD, just that their combined royalty (from both Blu-ray and DVD, if they hold patents in both) is higher than before, which is probably the case for Sony if Blu-ray market share further increases.

And going combos only will be a transition, and by the time say 80% of DVD owning households have Blu-ray players, the DVD will be dropped from the combo (so no more combos) and/or back to being severely time delayed. The transition Blu-ray has to make now is the hardest of all, to go from enthusiasts support to mainstream support, and it's definitely a strategy of "if you can't beat them" (DVDs, that is), "join them" (or join the DVD with the Blu-ray package). DVD will never go away completely (even CDs still exists today), since Blu-ray players all maintain DVD compatibility, and as I mentioned earlier, DVDs will always have place for titles that can't really benefit from an HD transfer.

I understand your point regarding export of US Blu-ray titles (due to increased region-free status for titles), as I made a similar point in my post regarding the fewer DVD exports due to region control. But I think exports only count for a small percentage of total sell-through numbers, and certainly not enough to influence market share by more than a couple of percentage points, if that. The truth is that studios are marketing Blu-ray as "better value" than DVD (sometimes through "perceived" value via more expensive combos, and sometimes actually just cheaper than DVDs - for example, the Blu-ray edition is usually equivalent to the 2-Disc DVD edition in terms of features, but often priced cheaper than it), and so, it's not a surprise people are buying Blu-ray. The situation is the same here in Australia as well, where I can get a Blu-ray movie for $12.95 or 2 for $20, but the years old DVD edition is still $14.95.