Nielsen VideoScan/Home Media Magazine: Blu-ray/DVD/HD DVD Stats (Updated Weekly)

[admin]

I don't think Blu-ray is making the kinds of in-roads that will guarantee it as the rightful successor to DVDs, at least not yet. The actual picture certainly doesn't match up to what the Sony PR machine has been painting, things like saying Blu-ray sales are 300% up compared to last year (of course they are, since you couldn't even buy a player in many electronics stores at that time).

Even the statement that "Blu-ray will overtake DVD by 2012" actually paints a rather harsh reality, that in 4 year's time, DVD sales will still be neck and neck to Blu-ray, with Blu-ray only slightly ahead by then.

Blu-ray, I think, will be a companion format to DVDs, but won't ever replace it. A lot of people see Blu-ray as a optional upgrade to DVD, and unless studios stop releasing movies on DVD, that's exactly what it is. It will take something completely different to replace DVDs I think. My money's on IP based VOD systems, once the bandwidth problems are resolved.

[blutach]

people see Blu-ray as a optional upgrade to DVD

Yes, it's an option, whereas DVD almost seemed a necessity over VHS.

@BR7 - in a now deleted post, you said that you thought that BD would have a big holiday season. Now, the prediction is pushed out by 18 months and as admin says, even the studios are only thinking (hoping) 4 years out! Somehow, I doubt it unless prices of hardware and titles come down - a LOT. Right now, they are only attracting, in economic terms, the "consumer surplus". People who are price insensitive, early adopters. But in order to be successful, they need to lure in mainstream consumers. This is not happening, especially in these tougher economic times.

I also agree with admin - I suspect the format will possibly skipped over (largely) for something completely different ... and, if this is the case, then my heart bleeds for SONY

Regards

[admin]

The graph shows Blu-ray sales as a percentage of total sales (of both Blu-ray and DVD sales combined). The dates on the bottom corresponds to the weeks ending on these days. For example, for the week ending August 17th, Blu-ray sales accounted for 5.27% of total DVD and Blu-ray sales.

More info in this blog post:

http://www.digital-digest.com/blog/DVDGuy/2008/08/29/blu-ray-sales-analysis-may-to-august-2008/

[dr_ml422]

I agree totalyy w/Fast Eddie in that there isn't a big difference when viewing both formats at a distance. Economics will always rule anything. The math won't lie. Numbers don't lie, especially when it comes down to the pocket of the consumer. I along w/others have noticed also that in many of the stores that sell HDTV and display both formats of std dvd and Blu-Ray it's totally distorted and at times even seems to be a case of false marketing for lack of a better word.

My friend who's really into gaming and HDTV both on a stand alone player or via a ps3 just told me the other day he would of never layed down the 3g's for the Blu-Ray drive he has on his machine. At $20 - $22 a pop for bd blanks it's plain crazy. What he pointed out which I didn't think during the conversation was the fact that you're out that ridiculous price if you screw up a blank, which we all do from time to time. That along w/the fact that in order to put all that video work that they hold which is a pita is even more of a reason to not buy into them. His method of which they're probably many is adding a silent musical note or 2 between footage so that you could continuously be able to fill the whole bd.

I have 2 sony wega trinitrons w/digital filters and just recently added digital cable to one. It is very clear and in some channels even crystal. Channel 4 on the olympics was immaculate. That said it wasn't that much difference if any as compared to some big name HDTV's I've seen. Sony being 1 of them. No telling what might happen exactly but admin's suggestion that some other format might suffice to replace std dvd's seems a reasonable forecast for now. I'm forced like all of us to upgrade to hd cable so my other wega is next. Lucky for me I didn't take the plunge and purchase a bd optical drive. This thread and the experiences of others have solidified all doubts I had about doing so.

[Chewy]

It now seems evident that Sony bought out Toshiba in the format war and even more evident that Sony was simply throwing more good money after bad.

The bottom line is upconverted SD video is "good nuf" for the masses.

[blutach]

Gee, that's really tough for SONY.

Regards

[dr_ml422]

It now seems evident that Sony bought out Toshiba in the format war and even more evident that Sony was simply throwing more good money after bad.

The bottom line is upconverted SD video is "good nuf" for the masses.

Well here's something else I have to learn about. Too many digital formats etc... Not nuf time. Lol... At least I knew what the digital comb filters do. Especially after googling it a minute ago. I only knew that my 2 sets would accept the hd signals and that the picture would be intact. Other than that I didn't actually know how the process worked.

[BR7]

I also agree with admin - I suspect the format will possibly skipped over (largely) for something completely different

I just dont see that happening.Prices will come down sooner rather then later.As for unconverted SD DVDs and HD downloads go they are garbage IMO.I just dont agree with people saying unconverted SD DVDs are just as good. You can see a difference between the two and the sound quality Blu-ray puts out cant be matched by cable,satellite,HD downloads,unconverted SD DVDs or VOD.My guess is that 80% of the masses haven't even attempted to compare Blu-ray to any of the options I listed above.I am not a Sony lover nor am I a fan of their past practices, but I am not going to ignore a good format because I am holding a grudge.

[dr_ml422]

About 30 yrs. ago or so my brother brought home a small sony trinitron. pull out buttons and the whole 9 yrds. at that time. Maybe it was a 10 in. Don't remember. Only thing I do remember was that the set lasted about 10 or more years. I haven't a problem w/what I have now and don't own any of their hdtv's or dvd players. the latter because of their reputation not playing certain discs. My take is solely on the blu-ray hype for lack of a better word right now. Most guys I know own sony tv's also and are way into the whole hd revolution whether through computers or gaming, and they feel like most of us that right now the price and the output whether through video or audio isn't so much better to buy into it. If it was toshiba, sharp, lg, or whoever else is still making tv's or would of led this campaign it still would of produced the same results. Matter of fact I'm still holding on to my panasonic vcr hoping the video stores down my way finally give up hope of selling their stuff at prices equivalent to dvd's so I could move in and buy everything I could and convert them to dvd's which really don't come out bad at all.

BR7 it's just economics. Sony just happens to be the guys we have to point to right now.

[Chewy]

no grudge here, I was equally unimpressed with HD format by toshiba, there just wasn't(as Blu points out) enough difference to justify the high cost of upgrading


After I saw what dvd's looked like compared to vhs back 6 years ago on a smaller color set, I was immediately sold and ended up putting my new vcr into mothballs and even gave away all my vhs tapes

Now seeing those dvd's on a decent upconverting setup(only 720p) vs a several thousand dollar 1080p setup I can only tell a small relative differencem having already collected all the old titles I care for and seeing the junk they are releasing today makes the upgrade even less attractive

[blutach]

I am not going to ignore a good format because I am holding a grudge.

BR7 it's just economics. Sony just happens to be the guys we have to point to right now.

Very true. People have upgrading to HD waaaaay down the list of things to do. Paying more in fuel costs to fill up their cars and heat their homes, and interest rates on their home mortgages and business loans (and the attendant flow-on in costs to every consumer item, especially food) are what's coming out of their pockets - not upgrading from something that most people feel is more than adequate to their entertainment needs.

BR7 - you are one of those consumer surplus people I was talking about before - one who is attracted to the technology and is price insensitive. But the format will not be successful until it can climb up people's collective consciousnesses. Right now, no matter how technically good it is, it is a pimple on the back of an elephant.

And if ever a company deserved a failure to get a good (or any) return on its investment, it is SONY. Their past business practices are simply atrocious. Not just the RipIt word, or secret Rootkits or the way they muscled Toshiba and HD-DVD outa the HD business (which WOULD have produced competition, lower prices and a more successful format). They are the epitome of a bad company.

Regards

[dr_ml422]

Chewy by this reference to setup>Now seeing those dvd's on a decent upconverting setup(only 720p) vs a several thousand dollar 1080p setup do you mean an upconverting dvd player or a tv set that upconverts the dvd from a regular dvd stand alone? I have no idea about this. A nudge would be appreciated and the forum and google will be my friends as I definitely need to learn about this. Thnx.

[Chewy]

Most decent tv and dvd players do the upconverting, several players even have divx capability in a premium brand name for less than 100$

[dr_ml422]

ok. I think that 20 in. flat screen sony wega trinitron I have isn't cabable of upconverting though. I might be wrong. Like I mentioned it just has a digital comb filter. My stand alones are a magnavox which plays just about anything and my toshiba d-rw2su video recorder which will play most formats except pal and maybe vcd's or svcd's. personal video work it'll do. Would I have to purchase a digital tv for that upconverting? Also when talking digital tv does it have to be a lcd or no? I gotta look into this. Thnx.

[Chewy]

Expect tp pay 500-1000$ for a 30-40 inch flat panel