Study: Hollow victory for Blu-ray?

[admin]

Some expected sales to explode, predicting that in a few years, Blu-ray decks would outsell even standard-definition DVD devices. However, not only have Blu-ray deck sales not logged dramatic increases since t he end of the format war, but Digital Tech Consulting Inc. (DTC) does not expect Blu-ray to represent more than a third of all DVD devices sold five years hence. DTC estimates that global non-PC Blu-ray deck sales will represent only 3 percent of all DVD devices sold in 2008 and only 31 percent by 2013.

As for prerecorded packaged media, DTC estimates that nearly 5.5 billion units of DVD disks will ship into the market in 2008. For prerecorded Blu-ray, the estimate is upward of 180 million units.

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There are several market-specific reasons why Blu-ray will not replace DVD. But historically, no mainstream media format has ever been supplanted by a slightly improved, compatible product.

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Traditional pay-TV service providers, as well as Internet and mobile-service providers, now have a greater ability to offer consumers an alternative to packaged media. The increased bandwidth afforded by AVC/H.264, as well as upgrades in network infrastructure, should aid traditional pay-TV providers in convincing consumers to get more of their TV and movie programming through HD video-on-demand and DVR services.

http://www.eetimes.com/news/latest/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=208700653

[BR7]

It doesn't say anything about internet DLs being able to match the outstanding picture and sound quality Blu-ray offers. HD content from satellite and cable companies can not match the sound and picture quality of Blu-ray either.

There are several market-specific reasons why Blu-ray will not replace DVD. But historically, no mainstream media format has ever been supplanted by a slightly improved, compatible product.

I don't agree with this at all. Blu-ray and HD DVD is a big upgrade from dvd (even upconversion).DVD can not match the superior sound or picture quality these two formats offer

[Chewy]

A lot of people I know started out with building a large dvd library, adding almost every week, now that cable offers better time shifting, most are only buying a few dvd's each month, if that.

[BR7]

I know a lot of people that did the same thing and refuse to upgrade.But I also know a lot of people that are rebuilding with Blu-ray.Like I said Dish and Cable companies can not offer what these discs put out.Dont get me wrong I am enjoying the HD content Dish Network is offering me,but Blu-ray has spoiled me and I will not settle for less

[admin]

I prefer discs myself, although video-on-demand is something that I would prefer for TV shows - a monthly fee and the ability to pick whichever episode you want to watch from a TV show would be better than having tons of discs and trying to find that one episode. I think we're still some distance away from Blu-ray quality video-on-demand, but once it's here, I think it will take away a lot of business from disc sales.

Even with low quality SD cable TV here, I have stayed away from buying the new Star Trek series on DVD because they show so many episodes here every week. If it was on demand, then I wouldn't even bother with buying the DVD. There is actually already an on-demand service here, although there's not a lot of selection (it pre-downloads to the set-top box, and on demand HD movies will be coming soon). I was actually watching Curb your Enthusiasm last night and was actually thinking how good it would be if all the episodes were available on-demand, as opposed to having to go through the discs and see which episode is where.

[blutach]

I really think pricing is the big issue in this. Many people, even after transcoding their (SD) DVDs, say "it looks fantastic" (i.e. it is good enough for them, given their video and audio hardware (and their eyes and ears!)). For them, going to BD may be "incremental/slightly improved" and they will need large price declines before they switch. It is not the same as the difference between VCR and DVD, which was a huge leap and noticeable by anyone who had even one functioning eye and even a tiny TV.

On the other hand, those with large 1920 x 1080 screens and surround sound audio may very well see BD as a huge improvement and disregard the price (after all, the additional hardware (PS3) is not expensive, just the BDs themselves).

I do think that the first group predominate and this is why BD has not "taken off" yet. As well, people will rail against rebuilding their libraries, some of which are quite expensive.

In summary, the price and benefits need to be more closely aligned before BD sales will even start to eat meaningfully into those of SD DVDs.

Regards

[drpepper]

I agree- price is biggest factor for example -Tues. new releases:dvd $12-13; Blu $30-35
The $99 HDdvd walmart special of months past vs the $300 blu player.
+ my tv watching is now split between dvds and the many (true) HD channels offerings vs the selection from years past

[BR7]

new releases:dvd $12-13; Blu $30-35

They are not that high anymore.New releases movies range around $21-$26(Unless it's a Limited Edition ) and old catalog titles are anywhere from $13-$24.I think you will see more price drops on movies and BR players when the holidays roll around.With all the sales going on now you may get a better deal then what I posted above.I will admit that you will find most of these deals online,in town franchise stores like target tend to overcharge

[drpepper]

My USD reference was from the Circuit City & Best Buy ads for the Tues releases. Walmart is a litttle closer but blu is still priced above $27. Of my neighbors & coworkers- most will use netflix to watch once, others will buy dvd at the discount retailers, none will buy BLU since the kids can't put in the portable players in all the suvs & minivans.

[admin]

I just received a catalogue from a local (Australian) department store (Target), it was 20 pages full of movies. Only one page was devoted to Blu-ray, and the prices are, well, out of place in the catalogue to say the least. Every other page was DVDs priced at $9.95, "2 for $19.95", "from $4.95". Then you have Blu-rays priced at $39.95, and it seems awfully out of place. There's no way Blu-ray can compete in this kind of environment, and even if it were to compete on price, it would mean bad news for studios and their brand new high earning format.

Unfortunately, the current movie presentation also seem to me a bit behind the times compared to video games and the experiences they offer, as well as the Internet for the interactive element. I can't really think of a way to improve this though, and navigating interactive content through a clunky remote control doesn't improve things much (imagine doing text chatting through it!). HD is great and it's a step in the right direction, but I think people need more than improved picture and sound quality (assuming they can see/hear the difference, as I have no idea why many cannot). Everything else Blu-ray offers, DVD already offers, except for the Internet based elements, but it didn't take off on HD DVD and I don't think it will be a huge thing on Blu-ray either.

It's a strange one, but I can't help but feel that something new is on the horizon that will change the way we think about watching movies.

[blutach]

Yeah, I really am thinking that I might skip the format and wait for the next technology to come along. I noted that catalogue, too admin. And when you see those prices, you don't have to wonder why people here aren't adopting.

The answer might be to rent. There are lots of DVD rental services around and if you already have the video and audio hardware, buying a PS3 might be the cheap way into this. Of course, the MPAA would dearly love us all to buy lots and lots of their content, but I don't feel that kindly to them, to tell you the truth. So, perhaps I'll just rent BDs when the time comes.

Regards

[BR7]

Thats why I said I don't shop places like that.You get your deals at Ebay,Amazon,Buy.com,tower.com,Deepdiscount.com and Blurayboxsets.com.The only time I I paid over $30 for a BR movie is when I got a limited edition or a series.With my purchases minus the series and limited edition stuff, I average paying about $17-$18 a movie.If people want deals they have to do some searching and stop shopping at the Best buys Targets and so on(online and off).There are tons of deals out there you just have to do some detective work

[blutach]

And I have seen HD-DVDs being thrown out at under $5 - one bloke on Doom9 reported he got a whole lot for a $1 each. Makes you think the MPAA should lower prices to get the format going.

Regards

[rago88]

Althought we have 2 HD Plasma tv's,
we prefer to rent movies from Netflixs.
[standard dvd]. 4 at a time out for 22.00 month.
Biggest reason is that owning a movie doesn't = multiple views for us..
Can't see buying a dvd that we May? watch a second time within a year..
[If I really want a certain movie that bad,
I make a wish and somehow magic happens.]
So paying waaay too much for Blu is out of the queston and not neccesary for us..
Besides,
having ShoTime/HBO/ Starz etc..
we end up watching it again down the road in HD thru Comcast cable..
Use an Upscale player and unless a blu is right next it,
the picture is great on Plasma so no missing Blu's somewhat better picture.

I am a tech freek but don't always jump into the lastest/greatest..
Still running Windows XP as I did not buy into the Vista hype..yet...

[admin]

Study: Blu-ray Sales to Pass DVD By 2012

A new study forecasts that Blu-ray high-def disc sales will surpass standard-def DVDs by the year 2012.

In other words, it will be 2012 before Blu-ray and DVD share the market evenly. 2012 is a long time, who knows what new technologies will be around by then (or even by the end of this year), so even this somewhat positive prediction for Blu-ray is not saying it will beat DVDs until 4 years later.

The article also says that home video sales will grow by $1b by that time (up from $24b right now), and includes "alternative delivery channels". I wonder how much of this income will come from these "alternative delivery channels" by then.