Some expected sales to explode, predicting that in a few years, Blu-ray decks would outsell even standard-definition DVD devices. However, not only have Blu-ray deck sales not logged dramatic increases since t he end of the format war, but Digital Tech Consulting Inc. (DTC) does not expect Blu-ray to represent more than a third of all DVD devices sold five years hence. DTC estimates that global non-PC Blu-ray deck sales will represent only 3 percent of all DVD devices sold in 2008 and only 31 percent by 2013.
As for prerecorded packaged media, DTC estimates that nearly 5.5 billion units of DVD disks will ship into the market in 2008. For prerecorded Blu-ray, the estimate is upward of 180 million units.
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There are several market-specific reasons why Blu-ray will not replace DVD. But historically, no mainstream media format has ever been supplanted by a slightly improved, compatible product.
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Traditional pay-TV service providers, as well as Internet and mobile-service providers, now have a greater ability to offer consumers an alternative to packaged media. The increased bandwidth afforded by AVC/H.264, as well as upgrades in network infrastructure, should aid traditional pay-TV providers in convincing consumers to get more of their TV and movie programming through HD video-on-demand and DVR services.
As for prerecorded packaged media, DTC estimates that nearly 5.5 billion units of DVD disks will ship into the market in 2008. For prerecorded Blu-ray, the estimate is upward of 180 million units.
-- snip --
There are several market-specific reasons why Blu-ray will not replace DVD. But historically, no mainstream media format has ever been supplanted by a slightly improved, compatible product.
-- snip --
Traditional pay-TV service providers, as well as Internet and mobile-service providers, now have a greater ability to offer consumers an alternative to packaged media. The increased bandwidth afforded by AVC/H.264, as well as upgrades in network infrastructure, should aid traditional pay-TV providers in convincing consumers to get more of their TV and movie programming through HD video-on-demand and DVR services.
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