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Blog entry written by yours truly, predicting where we will be in three years time with the high def war:
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optomistic view of technology changes
back long ago and far away my freshman physics professor at the academy
predicted nuclear power would change the world so much they would take the power meters off our houses by now -
Well maybe the part about managed copy, but I just don't think the war will end definitively one way or the other. DVDs won't last forever so a new HD format will be needed, and DVDs already look a bit outdated compared to the latest HD broadcasts/gaming, even in a HD-hating country like Australia. I also just can't see Toshiba or Sony withdrawing from the fight when so much has been invested, so the only outcome is one where we live with both formats.
The positive side is that the war will probably mean prices start dropping sooner rather than later, and it also has positive effects for DVDs too - DVDs will still be around for quite a while, and they will drop in price as more HD discs are made available.Comment
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what would be an alternative for the near future?
upconverting dvd players to go with HD televisions?
It would be nice to see SD dvd's use a little more of the 8.5 gigs for higher bitrates?Comment
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If you have a largish HD display already, then an up-converting DVD players is worthwhile, especially if it has built in media streaming (play AVI/DivX/XviD over a home wired/wireless network). It's not really that DVDs look great on HD screens when upscaled, it's mainly that when it isn't upscaled, it can look pretty average on a large HD screen (as would any SD source) - you need the upscaling to make it looks acceptable. Of course, HTPCs can upscale too, so that's another route to take.
There is a problem in that many upscaling DVD players don't up-convert over component, only over HDMI, due to (you've guessed it) copyright issues. The one I got is from Taiwan, and it does up-conversion over component, mainly because the company is a smaller one that isn't under the watchful eyes of the MPAA.
Or wait a year and get a Blu-ray/HD DVD player that has DVD up-conversion, probably for around the same price as an up-converting DVD player now.Comment
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What they could have done, of course, is instead of getting out a new optical format, perhaps extend the life of DVDs by using H.264 + 720p HD video (it should fit on a 8.5 GB disc using a bitrate of say 6 to 7 Mbps, which will produce quite good quality encodes). Of course, people will still need to invest in a new standalone player that can decode H.264/has HD output (so we'll still have to go through all the HDMI/HDCP mess), and those with 1080p screens will still not get the max out of their displays.
The timing of this HD "revolution" isn't great - we've really just gone through the DVD revolution, then the CRT TV to LCD/Plasma one, and now we'll have to go through another change, upgrading SD/720p LCD/Plasmas to 1080p sets. Possibly another one coming up when the next-gen displays are available (Laser, SED, OLED).Comment
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Interesting article, also well written. I can certainly agree with most of the predictions, they appear to be of sound reasoning and realistic.
The only comment I would like to add, and this is historical data talking now, PRICE and a HIGH QUANITY of NUMBERS make a sound pointing direction of where the format war direction is going (HD or Blu-Ray) and generally speaking for any other DVD direction.Comment
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Been using a NeoDigits[ formally NeuNeo]
upscaler that coverts to 1080i via component or Hdmi for past yr or so.
Also plays AVI/DivX/XviD
may not be true HD but sure as heck looks it.
actually bought a 2nd one when I bought a smaller HD for bedroom..
Think I'll stay with this for quite a long time as opposed to buying into the HD/blue mess..Last edited by rago88; 22 Jun 2007, 09:51 PM.Comment
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