Research firm predicts Blu-ray to thrive until 2017 (then video-on-demand takes over)

[admin]

Research outfit SNL Kagan released a report today predicting that, while standard definition DVD commands 97.1 percent of the home video market today, high definition Blu-ray players and movies will grow to 59.7 percent of the market in 2014 and $13.1 billion in sales.

http://techblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2009/02/research-firm-predicts-blu-ray.html

I don't think it will take that long though, because we already have video-on-demand here in Australia available to almost every home (free as part of certain subscription television packages). Even HD movies are now available to "download" on demand. Of course, this is done through cable/satellite, not through ADSL.

[dr_ml422]

Hi Admin. These movies from video-on-demand, can you copy them while watching for future use? Also can you do the same w/the HD movies one is able to download on demand? New to this. Waiting soon to plunge after getting the HDTV. Thnx.

[admin]

I don't actually have this service yet, but there are selected TV shows and programs available on demand for free. The HD movies on demand cost money, just like the normal "pay per view" movies, with a 48 hour viewing time (from first viewing, not downloading). The pay TV box has a built in HDD to store the downloaded content. You can't copy off the HDD, apart from making analogue copies (Macrovision permitting for the movies).

Here's a video of it in action:

[drfsupercenter]

I think this online rental service is stupid, as long as they're using DRM on it.

I rented a couple movies through Xbox Live Marketplace and I hate when the stupid thing expires... I mean for renting, sure, but why can't you just watch free movies?

"On Demand" is never really on demand, you have to pick from their tiny little list, they have advertisements etc... no thank you. I'm happy using the library, Blockbuster, and Amazon.com.

[dr_ml422]

I feel this is awesome as like I said only so much space for hard copy. Missed how much it was for that demo on there. Heard.25 but it prolly was 1,2, or even $3.25. What I think is great is that this is only the beginning so more titles will be available. No worry about dropping off video or picking up at BB or anywhere else. 48 hour good enough, as even w/rental sometimes sh1t happens and you either pay late fee or bring back w/out viewing.

The free VOD movies would have to be included in the subscription price for cable correct? Only matter of time until hopefully if willingly Blu-ray'll be integrated w/this. Well it's here Admin. Might be in infant stage or w/e, and have both proponents and opponents. I like it. Still will go out to catch a flic as social rec time is par for the course.

Thnx for that clip. I tried viewing another snippet there, but I'm not in Australia so couldn't. I'm behind on this but soon here will have the preliminary setup to go forward.

[ShamsWoof10]

I think Blu-ray will be replace by the "Tera Optical Disk" in a few years but "On Demand" will BLOW UP even with the arrival of the optical disk.. This new infrastructure will really help a lot of this stuff. like "On Demand" explode because telecommunications hardware will greatly improve...

I like the idea of "On Demand" for everything because the storage of disks is irritating and "On Demand" is far more convenient...

[dr_ml422]

Only makes sense really. I mean even doing what you want w/a video still requires either Hard Copy storage or into a hdd. Digital storage will be better also for personal library, but for Pete's sake how many discs or stored files do you really want or need.

I'm going to Google this Tera Optical Disk see what it is. If picture Hi-def n still looks great then it would be reasonable that it could/would replace Blu-ray.

[admin]

I've done a bit more research on the VOD thing that my subscription TV provider, Foxtel, provides.

The on demand stuff is only "push" based, meaning every week, some content is "pushed" into the people's STBs and stored on the user's hard-drive. This type of technology allows for VOD to occur on systems where there is no two way communication (ie. the Foxtel STB cannot "call out" to Foxtel's servers to get stuff, so Foxtel's servers has to push it to people's STBs), and so this is not really interactive TV (although it is on demand). As such, the number of programs available on demand is limited to how much data can be pushed and stored onto people's STBs.

The other type that Foxtel has been using is called "near" VOD, where basically they have about 20 channels which broadcast VOD content continuously at set times. Sort of like how a cinema works, where there are session times. After you order a movie, you'll have to wait until the next session starts (and due to the multi-channels, it won't be a long wait). Movies can be recorded to the hard-drive of the STB once ordered, and it will be automatically deleted after 24 hours.

The "real" VOD will be IP based that operates either through your home ADSL connection, or a dedicated connection provided by the subscription service (interestingly, Foxtel is co-owned by our largest telecommunication provider, and also an ISP). It might be a combination of push/pre-download, where you select the programs you want to watch ahead of time and the show will be downloaded when your connection is not being used. Or it could be real time streaming (with a couple of minutes of wait time while it is buffering). This will of course consume bandwidth. The cost of bandwidth is much less of an issue than the amount of available bandwidth - ISPs and cable TV companies can make deals to ensure all VOD downloads are not counted towards your quota, however, if you're downloading other stuff with your connection, something has to give (unless we're talking about 50Mbps+ connections). A dedicated VOD ADSL connection may be possible, if you have an extra phone line to your home, and this is the much better solution, although the connection costs will be pricey.

[dr_ml422]

That's awesome. So here in the states we have this VOD already correct? Or is the VOD here different then what you're getting or will be getting down under? I know Raggo posted about staying home n watching movies recorded from cable, forgot though if this is VOD or not.

You're guessing the dedicated line will b pricey because of it's service, and how much the streaming or w/e is now? Would there be a way to pump Blu-ray into your box either through a isp or cable/sattelite connection? Now I know what you meant when you posted a while back of how all this would come to frution barring they blowing up the internet because of the bandwidth. Lol...